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CFTC launched three unreported investigations into Polymarket trading

Source: Wired
Time: 12:14 AM
Weight: 95/100High importance
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What happened?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched three previously undisclosed investigations into suspicious activity on Polymarket, a major prediction market where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events.

Why it matters

According to documents obtained by WIRED, the federal regulator is examining potential insider trading—the illegal practice of trading based on non-public information—related to Joseph Biden’s presidential pardons, Middle East conflicts involving Iran, and Google’s year-end search rankings.

Original Source

Detailed explanation

These probes signal increasing government scrutiny of the prediction market industry as it gains mainstream financial traction.

The Biden pardon investigation followed reports of a trader netting $300,000 through highly accurate bets, while the Iran-related inquiry involves a network of accounts that reportedly achieved a 98 percent win rate to earn $2.4 million.

Legal experts noted that these actions highlight the CFTC’s reliance on external press reports to identify potential violations of the Commodities Exchange Act.

The regulatory crackdown has already led to significant legal consequences for individuals involved in such markets.

A Google engineer and a U.S.

special forces officer were recently arrested in separate cases for allegedly using confidential data to profit on Polymarket event contracts.

While companies like Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi state they are cooperating with law enforcement to protect market integrity, several defendants are currently challenging the charges, arguing that their activities constitute gambling rather than regulated commodities trading.

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